Boise Real Estate Market July 2025 | Inventory Growth, Tariffs & Investment Signals
Market Snapshot – A Summer Reset
Ada and Canyon counties entered the second half of 2025 with more homes on the market and modest price gains. According to We Know Boise’s July update, the average sold price in Ada County reached $580,000, roughly 2 % higher than July 2024, while Canyon County climbed to $439,900 (up 3.5 %). Sales activity exceeded last year’s levels: Ada County closed 855 homes (a 17 % jump), and Canyon County recorded 488 sales (up 21 %). Despite solid sales, supply is quietly building—Ada County now has 2.94 months of inventory and Canyon County sits at 2.92, with active listings up 23 % year‑over‑year. More options mean buyers are increasingly selective, and homes that are properly priced and staged still sell quickly.
Mortgage rates have fluctuated this summer; after declining for several weeks, the 30‑year fixed rate nudged back up to about 6.72 % in mid‑July. High borrowing costs are still dampening demand, yet dips in rates spark activity—purchase applications rose 25 % compared with last year. Builders are responding by offering rate buydowns and closing‑cost assistance. These incentives, combined with the growing inventory, present an opportunity for buyers to secure favorable terms before competition intensifies.
Snapshot of Boise‑area indicators (June 2025)
Median list price: $549,900, down 1.3 %
Median sold price: $544,710, down 2.1 %
Average price per square foot: $335, up 6 %
Median days on market: 9 days (unchanged)
Supply: 2.43 months, slightly higher than last month
30‑year mortgage rate: 6.82 %, down a tenth of a point
These figures suggest that Boise remains technically a seller’s market (4–5 months of inventory is considered balanced), but the rising supply is softening upward price pressure. Watch for listing growth and mortgage‑rate shifts over the next month; if inventory continues to climb without a corresponding rise in demand, prices may face downward pressure in the fall.
Tariffs and Construction: Navigating Uncertainty
National tariff policy remains a dominant storyline in 2025. New federal tariffs have raised the effective U.S. trade‑weighted rate to around 8 % and could exceed 12 % if all proposed levies take effect. These tariffs include 20 % duties on Chinese imports, 25 % on Mexican and Canadian goods, plus additional 25 % levies on steel, aluminum and possibly copper and lumber. Builders report that tariffs on imported materials have already increased construction costs by about 34 % since late 2020 and add roughly $10,900 to the price of a typical home.
A recent S&P Global analysis warns that the U.S. construction market will be most impacted by tariff policies. It predicts that uncertainty around tariffs will slow construction in late 2025 and 2026, as companies delay investments due to volatile material prices. Prices of building materials are expected to rise, and supply‑chain rerouting could lead to delays. S&P Global notes that uncertainty is the main factor, with tariffs on steel and aluminum having the greatest impact on non-residential projects.
How should investors adapt? Consider:
Creative financing and partnerships. Rising costs encourage joint ventures, shared risk, and flexible financing terms to keep projects feasible.
Alternative materials. Exploring engineered wood, recycled steel, or domestic suppliers can mitigate tariff exposure.
Government incentives. Monitor tax credits or local programs offsetting tariff costs—often available for energy‑efficient or infill projects.
Local Economic Drivers – Micron and Infrastructure
Major investments continue to bolster the Treasure Valley economy. In June, Micron Technology announced it will expand domestic memory manufacturing to nearly $200 billion, including $30 billion to build a second leading‑edge memory fabrication facility in Boise and expand its Virginia plant. Micron’s plan aims to produce 40 % of its DRAM chips in the U.S. and is expected to generate around 90,000 jobs, with production at the first Boise fab beginning in 2027. The expansion strengthens Boise’s position as a semiconductor hub and should support demand for housing and commercial space near the campus.
At the same time, Boise is investing in quality‑of‑life infrastructure. The city is replacing cracked asphalt sections of the Boise River Greenbelt with concrete, upgrading benches, trash cans and bollards, and addressing root damage. Work began May 27 2025 and will continue into the fall. Supply‑chain disruptions, rising material costs, and staffing shortages have made such projects more challenging, but the improvements will enhance trails and recreational access, benefiting nearby developments. Expect detours along the river throughout the summer.
Construction Costs and Supply Chains
National construction costs rose 2.2 % in the first quarter of 2025 and nearly 4 % year‑over‑year, according to the Mortenson Construction Cost Index. Cities like Seattle and Chicago saw quarterly increases of 2.6 % and annual gains of 4.5–4.6%/. These figures reflect inflation pressures, labor shortages, and expensive materials.
On the positive side, supply chains have improved. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reports that about 85 % of builders received materials on time as of June 2025, a significant improvement over the shortages of 2022–2023. However, labor remains tight—Idaho faces a shortage of roughly 5,000 construction workers, pushing labor costs up 1 % quarterly (about 4 % annually), and tariffs will keep material prices elevated. Expect an additional 2–3 % increase in total construction costs in the coming months.
Industry News – Builder Sentiment and National Trends
The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index shows that builder confidence rose to 33 in July, up from 32 in June but well below 41 a year earlier. Current sales and expectations for the next six months improved slightly, but prospective‑buyer traffic fell to 20. NAHB’s chief economist Robert Dietz expects single‑family housing starts to decline in 2025 due to affordability challenges, noting that permits are down 6 % year‑to‑date and buyer traffic is at a two‑year low. Regionally, the West—where Boise is located—has the lowest confidence at 25.
These data points reinforce the “summer reset” theme: supply is rising while demand is tempered by high mortgage rates and tariff‑related cost pressures. The market is shifting from frenetic post‑pandemic growth to a more balanced, strategic environment.
Featured Investment Opportunities
Looking for opportunities amid the turbulence? Here are a few local projects to watch:
Silver Bucket Multi‑Family Development (Garden City). This project is converting an under‑utilized site near the Boise River into high‑quality apartments with sustainable materials. Proximity to the Greenbelt and downtown amenities makes it attractive to tenants seeking walkable living.
Poplar Avenue Duplex (Boise). A centrally located 3‑bedroom duplex in an area undergoing revitalization. Professional management is available, or investors may self‑manage to maximize cash flow.
Hale Project (1202 W. Hale St., Boise). A rental property generating about $2,650 monthly. Its location next to Boise State University places it in a high‑demand rental market.
Beach Street Mixed‑Use (Near the Greenbelt). Zoned MX‑3 with ample parking, this site currently operates three rental units but has potential for redevelopment into a larger mixed‑use project.
These opportunities illustrate the variety of investment avenues in the Treasure Valley. Whether pursuing value-add residential, infill development, or mixed-use projects, investors should model deals with higher construction and financing costs in mind and seek flexibility in lease terms or joint‑venture structures.
The Road Ahead – Preparing for August
As we head into August, keep an eye on the following:
Inventory trajectory. If listing growth continues without comparable demand, expect pricing to flatten or soften by fall. Conversely, any sustained drop in mortgage rates could re-ignite demand and absorb supply.
Tariff developments. Additional tariffs on copper or lumber would further pressure construction budgets. Monitor federal policy announcements and consider hedging strategies (fixed‑price contracts or alternative suppliers).
Micron expansion milestones. Announcements on hiring, construction schedules or local partnerships will signal the pace at which Boise’s tech-driven growth will accelerate.
Community engagement. Attend public meetings and support neighborhood initiatives—participation influences zoning decisions and ensures infill projects enhance walkability, sustainability and green space.
Boise’s real estate market is transitioning into a more balanced phase. Opportunities still abound for those who stay informed, adapt to cost pressures, and embrace creative strategies. We’ll continue monitoring developments weekly and will return next Tuesday with fresh insights.